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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access published online on November 15, 2007
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm164
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© 2007 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Using multinomial models to analyse data from Iberiansardine egg incubation experiments: a comparison with traditional techniques

Miguel Bernal1,, Leire Ibaibarriaga2, Ana Lago de Lanzós3, Mike E. Lonergan4, Carmen Hernández5, Concha Franco3, Inmaculada Rasines6, Luis Valdés6 and David L. Borchers7

1 Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO) Estación Pesquera de Cádiz, Centro Andaluz de Ciencia y Tecnología CACYTMAR, República Saharahui s/n, Campus Río San Pedro, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain
2 AZTI Foundation, Fisheries and Food Technological Institute, Herrera Kaia Portualdea z/g, 20110 Pasaia, Basque Country, Spain
3 IEO, Centro Oceanográfico de Madrid, Corazón de Maria 8, 28002 Madrid, Spain
4 NERC Sea Mammal Research Unit, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 8LB, UK
5 IEO, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Promontorio San Martín s/n 39004, Santander, Spain
6 IEO, Centro Oceanográfico de Gijon, Avenida Príncipe de Asturias, 70 bis 33212 Gijón, Spain
7 CREEM, University of St Andrews, The Observatory, Buchanan Gardens, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9LZ, UK

Correspondence to M. Bernal: tel: +34 956 016290; fax: +34 956 016415; e-mail: miguel.bernal{at}cd.ieo.es

Bernal, M., Ibaibarriaga, L., Lago de Lanzós, A., Lonergan, M. E., Hernández, C., Franco, C., Rasines, I., Valdés, L., and Borchers, D. L. 2008. Using multinomial models to analyse data from Iberian sardine egg incubation experiments: a comparison with traditional techniques. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65.

Multinomial rather than traditional models were applied to improve data analysis of incubation experiments for Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) eggs. Incubation experiments were carried out in 2002 in the Gulf of Cádiz, southwestern Spain, and data were taken from the literature for the Cantabrian Sea area. Rigorous review of the traditional models revealed shortcomings in the statistical framework for modelling the developmental progression of egg stages as well as a lack of transparency of the inherent assumptions. Multinomial model results show that egg stage duration varies for all stages, with stages 3 and 4 having the shortest duration. Comparison of the results between multinomial and traditional models shows that multinomial models provide improved insight into developmental mechanisms than that can be achieved using traditional models.

Keywords: age determination, anchovy, daily egg production method, egg development, multinomial model, sardine

Received 23 January 2007; accepted 8 October 2007.


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