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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2005 62(6):1139-1149; doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.04.009
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© 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Did over-reliance on commercial catch rate data precipitate the collapse of northern cod?

Peter A. Shelton*

Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre PO Box 5667, St John's, Newfoundland, Canada A1C 5X1

*Correspondence to P. A. Shelton: tel: +1 709 7722341; fax: +1 709 7724105. e-mail: sheltonp{at}dfo-mpo.gc.ca.

It has been suggested that a number of "lessons" can be learned from the collapse of the northern cod stock off Newfoundland and Labrador. However, not all purported lessons have been validated with available data. One lesson is thought to be that over-reliance on commercial catch rate data and an incorrect assumption regarding the functional relationship between catch rate and population size were major contributors to overestimating stock size, precipitating the collapse. The current study describes calibration approaches used in assessments, and evaluates alternative functional relationships between commercial catch rates and stock size. In addition, historical population size is re-estimated using only research vessel data and compared with estimates obtained based on both commercial catch rate and research vessel data. Calibration with commercial catch rate contributed to overestimating stock size in some years, but there is no evidence that the assumed functional relationship between commercial catch rate and population size was a significant factor in the collapse.

Keywords: catch rate, cod, collapse, model calibration, population estimation, stock assessment

Received 3 November 2004; accepted 4 April 2005.


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