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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2005 62(3):483-492; doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.012
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© 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Indirect economic indicators in bio-economic fishery models: agricultural price indicators and fish stocks in Lake Victoria

Silvio Simonit and Charles Perrings*

University of York Heslington, York, England, YO10 5DD, UK

*Correspondence to C. Perrings: tel: +44 1904 432997; fax: +44 1904 432998. e-mail: cap8{at}york.ac.uk.

We consider the potential for using prices as leading indicators of changes in stocks and yields in the freshwater capture fishery in Lake Victoria. Fertilizer run-off from agricultural land is a major cause of nutrient loading, along with soil erosion, atmospheric deposition, and point pollution from industrial and domestic affluent. The interactions between fertilizer applications, water quality, fish stocks, and yields are modelled in order to predict the effect of changes in the price of fertilizers on the fishery. The fishery model includes a measure of Chl a concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton density). The consequences of changes in Chl a concentration for fish stocks are modelled using Ecopath. We show that fertilizer prices are effective leading indicators of changes in fish biomass and yield.

Keywords: ecological-economic modelling, fisheries, land–water interactions

Received 1 April 2004; accepted 4 November 2004.


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