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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2004 61(2):274-286; doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2003.12.004
© 2004 by ICES/CIEM International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer
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A risk assessment of the sustainability of the harvest of beluga (Delphinapterus leucas (Pallas 1776)) in West Greenland

Carlos M. Alvarez-Flores*,a and Mads Peter Heide-Jørgensenb,1

a School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
b Greenland Institute of Natural Resources Boks 570, DK-3900 Nuuk, Greenland

*Correspondence to C. M. Alvarez-Flores. Present address: Resource Assessment and Conservation Engineering, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E. Building 4, Seattle, WA 98115, USA. Tel.: (206)526-4316; fax: (206)526-6723. e-mail: Carlos.Alvarez{at}noaa.gov.

Risk assessments to assess the efficiency of management procedures to regulate removals of marine mammals have rarely been conducted. Using Bayesian methods, we conducted a risk assessment on a harvested beluga population off West Greenland. The population size in recent years was estimated to be 22% of the size in 1954. Results indicate that current catches are unsustainable and that continuation of this situation represents a 90% probability that the population will become extinct in 20 years. The analyses suggest that the harvest should be reduced to no more than 130 animals. Constant catch quotas represent a greater risk of depletion compared with catch limits that are a function of harvest rate and population size. An alternative gradual reduction schedule is proposed as a viable strategy, reducing the harvest in 5 years and adjusting the subsequent quota using a harvest rate of 0.5 of Rmax, with updates in the abundance. This analysis is presented as an alternative for cases where an immediate catch reduction is desirable but not feasible for marine mammal populations that appear vulnerable or in danger and where catch and abundance data are available.

Keywords: beluga hunt, Greenland, risk assessment

Received 25 February 2003; accepted 5 December 2003.

1 Present address: National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E. Building 4, Seattle, WA 98115, USA.


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