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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access published online on October 10, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp238
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© 2009 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

What controls the spatial distribution of the North Sea plaice spawning population? Confronting ecological hypotheses through a model selection framework

Christophe Loots1, Sandrine Vaz1, Benjamin Planque2 and Philippe Koubbi3,4

1 Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques, 150 quai Gambetta, BP699, 62321 Boulogne sur mer, France
2 Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 6404, 9294 Tromsø, Norway
3 UPMC Université Paris VI, UMR 7093, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, 06230 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
4 CNRS, UMR 7093, LOV, 06230 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France

Correspondence to S. Vaz: tel: +33 321 995632; fax: +33 321 995601; e-mail: sandrine.vaz{at}ifremer.fr

Loots, C., Vaz, S., Planque, B., and Koubbi, P. 2010. What controls the spatial distribution of the North Sea plaice spawning population? Confronting ecological hypotheses through a model selection framework. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 000–000.

The spatial dynamics of spawning fish are crucial because they influence the survival rates of eggs and larvae and ultimately impact the reproductive success of populations. The factors that control these dynamics are complex and potentially many, and they interact. A model-selection-based approach was developed to confront various hypotheses of control of the spatial distribution of spawning population of North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). For each hypothesis or combination thereof, statistical models were constructed. These were then ranked and selected based on their ability to adjust and predict observed spatial distributions. The North Sea plaice population seems to have developed strong attachment to specific spawning sites, where geographic location and population memory are important controlling factors. Temporal changes in spatial distribution patterns appear to be influenced primarily by population size and demography. Variations in hydrographic conditions such as temperature and salinity do not appear to control interannual fluctuations in spatial distribution. This means that, for reproduction, applying conventional habitat models may falsely attribute major controlling effects to environmental conditions. It is concluded that a multiple-hypothesis approach is essential to understanding and predicting the present and future distribution of the North Sea plaice population during its spawning season.

Keywords: AIC, multi-model inference, North Sea plaice, spatial distribution, spawning population

Received 19 June 2009; accepted 24 August 2009.


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