ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access published online on September 4, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp224
Exploring spatial non-stationarity of fisheries survey data using geographically weighted regression (GWR): an example from the Northwest Atlantic
1 Fisheries Conservation Group, Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada A1C 5R3
2 Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada A1C 5R3
3 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada M5S 3G5
Correspondence to M. J. S. Windle: tel: +1 709 778 0504; fax: +1 709 778 0669; e-mail: matt.windle{at}mi.mun.ca.
Windle, M. J. S., Rose, G. A., Devillers, R., and Fortin, M-J. 2010. Exploring spatial non-stationarity of fisheries survey data using geographically weighted regression (GWR): an example from the Northwest Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 000–000.Analyses of fisheries data have traditionally been performed under the implicit assumption that ecological relationships do not vary within management areas (i.e. assuming spatially stationary processes). We question this assumption using a local modelling technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), not previously used in fisheries analyses. Outputs of GWR are compared with those of global logistic regression and generalized additive models (GAMs) in predicting the distribution of northern cod off Newfoundland, Canada, based on environmental (temperature and distance from shore) and biological factors (snow crab and northern shrimp) from 2001. Results from the GWR models explained significantly more variability than the global logistic and GAM regressions, as shown by goodness-of-fit tests and a reduction in the spatial autocorrelation of model residuals. GWR results revealed spatial regions in the relationships between cod and explanatory variables and that the significance and direction of these relationships varied locally. A k-means cluster analysis based on GWR t-values was used to delineate distinct zones of species–environment relationships. The advantages and limitations of GWR are discussed in terms of potential application to fisheries ecology.
Keywords: Atlantic cod, fisheries ecology, generalized additive models, geographically weighted regression, logistic regression, non-stationarity, Northwest Atlantic, spatial modelling
Received 6 April 2009; accepted 6 August 2009.