ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access published online on October 15, 2008
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn166
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A model-based evaluation of Marine Protected Areas: the example of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.)
1 National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kavalergarden 6, Dk-2920 Denmark; present address: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Palmaille 9, D-22767 Hamburg, Germany
2 Institut Français de Recherche pour l’Exploration de la Mer, BP 21105, 44311 Nantes Cedex 03, France
3 Campus de l’IRD, 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, Anse Vata, BP A5, 98848 Nouméa Cedex, New Caledonia
4 Institute for Hydrobiology and Fishery Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, D-22767 Hamburg, Germany
5 Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany
6 Department of Marine Fisheries, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Castle, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
Correspondence to G. Kraus: tel: +49 40 38905 177/178; fax: +49 40 38905 263; e-mail: gerd.kraus{at}vti.bund.de.
Kraus, G., Pelletier, D., Dubreuil, J., Möllmann, C., Hinrichsen, H-H., Bastardie, F., Vermard, Y., and Mahévas, S. 2009. A model-based evaluation of Marine Protected Areas: the example of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.). – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 000–000.The eastern Baltic cod stock collapsed as a consequence of climate-driven adverse hydrographic conditions and overfishing and has remained at historically low levels. Spatio-temporal fishing closures [Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)] have been implemented since 1995, to protect and restore the spawning stock. However, no signs of recovery have been observed yet, either suggesting that MPAs are an inappropriate management measure or pointing towards suboptimal closure design. We used the spatially explicit fishery simulation model ISIS-Fish to evaluate proposed and implemented fishery closures, combining an age-structured population module with a multifleet exploitation module and a management module in a single model environment. The model is parameterized based on (i) the large amount of biological knowledge available for cod and (ii) an analysis of existing spatially disaggregated fishery data. As the population dynamics of eastern Baltic cod depend strongly on the climate-driven hydrographic regime, we considered two production regimes of the stock. MPAs were only effective for stock recovery when they reduced overall fishing effort. The performance of MPAs needs to be evaluated relative to environmental regimes, especially for stocks facing strong environmental variability.
Keywords: Baltic cod, fishery management, Marine Protected Areas, model, stock recovery
Received 6 November 2007; accepted 23 May 2008.
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