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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on May 15, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(8):1808-1813; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp144
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Crown Copyright © 2009. Published by Oxford Journals on behalf of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. All rights reserved

This article appears in the following ICES Journal of Marine Science issue: Herring: linking biology, ecology, and status of populations in the context of changing environments [View the issue table of contents]

A two-stage biomass model for Irish Sea herring allowing for additional variance in the recruitment index caused by mixing of stocks

Beatriz A. Roel1, José A. A. De Oliveira1 and Steven Beggs2

1 Cefas, Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK
2 Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, Newforge Lane, Belfast BT9 5PX, Northern Ireland, UK

Correspondence to B. A. Roel: tel: +44 1502 524358; fax: +44 1502 527379; e-mail: beatriz.roel{at}cefas.co.uk

Roel, B. A., De Oliveira, J. A. A., and Beggs, S. 2009. A two-stage biomass model for Irish Sea herring allowing for additional variance in the recruitment index caused by mixing of stocks. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1808–1813.

An assessment of Irish Sea (ICES Division VIIa, North) herring using a two-stage biomass model was undertaken given lack of internal consistency in the survey age-disaggregated index. The model constrains recruitment variability and reduces the number of catchability parameters to address concerns of overparameterization. An extra parameter was incorporated to estimate the component of the variance resulting from the mixing of Celtic Sea and Irish Sea juvenile herring in the survey area. This additional variance, although imprecise, represented a large part of the total variance associated with the recruit survey data. More information on the variability of Irish Sea herring recruitment is required to estimate additional variance in the context of the two-stage biomass model presented. Limitations in the age-composition data and potential interannual variation in the selection pattern of the fishery favour an assessment method, such as the two-stage biomass method, which is based on a simplified age structure and does not require separability assumptions.

Keywords: assessment, herring, mixed populations, two-stage biomass model

Received 4 September 2008; accepted 6 March 2009; advance access publication 15 May 2009.


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