ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on July 9, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(8):1776-1783; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp181
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This article appears in the following ICES Journal of Marine Science issue: Herring: linking biology, ecology, and status of populations in the context of changing environments [View the issue table of contents]
Lumpers or splitters? Evaluating recovery and management plans for metapopulations of herring
1 Cefas, Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK
2 current address: International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), Corazón de Maria 8, Planta 6, 28002 Madrid, Spain
3 Wageningen Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies (IMARES), PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands
4 Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen, Norway
Correspondence to L. T. Kell: tel: +34 914 165 600; fax: +34 914 152 612; e-mail: laurie.kell{at}iccat.int
Kell, L. T., Dickey-Collas, M., Hintzen, N. T., Nash, R. D. M., Pilling, G. M., and Roel, B. A. 2009. Lumpers or splitters? Evaluating recovery and management plans for metapopulations of herring. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1776–1783.The long-term management of a stock representing a metapopulation has been simulated in a case study loosely based upon herring to the west of the British isles, where stocks are currently assessed and managed by management area, although there is evidence of mixing between stocks (in terms of connectivity, migrations, and exploitation). The simulations evaluate scientific advice (based on virtual population analysis, VPA) and the sustainability of fishing under two population-structure scenarios, corresponding either to discrete stocks, which only mix on the feeding grounds, or where diffusion between stocks takes place. The ability of stock assessment to monitor stock status and exploitation levels was evaluated for defining stocks based on fishing areas and for stocks that combined fishing areas. The study showed that assessment based on VPA of the metapopulation could fail to detect overexploitation of stocks and fail to detect and distinguish between the effects of exploitation and regime shifts.
Keywords: diffusion, evaluation, fishery, FLR, herring, management, metapopulations, mixing, populations, regime shifts, stock definition, virtual population analysis
Received 4 September 2008; accepted 12 April 2009; advance access publication 9 July 2009.
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