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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on June 26, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(8):1681-1687; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp182
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© 2009 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

This article appears in the following ICES Journal of Marine Science issue: Herring: linking biology, ecology, and status of populations in the context of changing environments [View the issue table of contents]

Recruitment forecasting using indices of young-of-the-year Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) abundance in the Strait of Georgia (BC)

Jacob F. Schweigert, Douglas E. Hay, Thomas W. Therriault, Matthew Thompson and Carl W. Haegele

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, BC, Canada V9T 6N7

Correspondence to J. F. Schweigert: tel: +1 250 756 7203; fax: +1 250 756 7138; e-mail: jake.schweigert{at}dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Schweigert, J. F., Hay, D. E., Therriault, T. W., Thompson, M., and Haegele, C. W. 2009. Recruitment forecasting using indices of young-of-the-year Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) abundance in the Strait of Georgia (BC). – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1681–1687.

Within the Strait of Georgia (BC, Canada), recruitment of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) to the spawning stock at age 3 can be highly variable, and this component may compose a major portion of the spawning-stock biomass. Therefore, a reliable method of forecasting recruitment strength would be useful for determining total allowable catches for the fishery. We developed an empirical approach to forecasting recruitment from young-of-the-year (YOY) surveys using purse-seine sampling in late September and evaluate its predictive capability for estimating the relative size of a year class before it enters the fishery. For each year, we compared YOY catches-by-weight with the number of age-3 recruits derived from subsequent catch-at-age analyses. The relationship is positive but not statistically significant because of considerable annual variation in the estimates. However, it is worth noting that in years when YOY herring were least abundant, the resulting cohort also was low. Consequently, although the relationship may not be sufficiently precise for accurate recruitment forecasting, it can be used by fishery management for the qualitative evaluation of the likelihood of strong or weak returns in future seasons when setting quotas for the fishery.

Keywords: juveniles, Pacific herring, prediction, recruitment, young-of-the-year

Received 9 September 2008; accepted 16 March 2009; advance access publication 26 June 2009.


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