ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on April 2, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(7):1570-1583; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp056
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This article appears in the following ICES Journal of Marine Science issue: Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans [View the issue table of contents]
Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations
1 Wageningen IMARES (Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies), PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands, and Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Department of Animal Science, Wageningen University, PO Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, The Netherlands
2 Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, 22767 Hamburg, Germany
3 Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, England, UK
Correspondence to A. D. Rijnsdorp: tel: +31 317 487191; fax: +31 317 487326; e-mail: adriaan.rijnsdorp{at}wur.nl
Rijnsdorp, A. D., Peck, M. A., Engelhard, G. H., Möllmann, C., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2009. Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1570–1583.This paper develops a framework for the study of climate on fish populations based on first principles of physiology, ecology, and available observations. Environmental variables and oceanographic features that are relevant to fish and that are likely to be affected by climate change are reviewed. Working hypotheses are derived from the differences in the expected response of different species groups. A review of published data on Northeast Atlantic fish species representing different biogeographic affinities, habitats, and body size lends support to the hypothesis that global warming results in a shift in abundance and distribution (in patterns of occurrence with latitude and depth) of fish species. Pelagic species exhibit clear changes in seasonal migration patterns related to climate-induced changes in zooplankton productivity. Lusitanian species have increased in recent decades (sprat, anchovy, and horse mackerel), especially at the northern limit of their distribution areas, while Boreal species decreased at the southern limit of their distribution range (cod and plaice), but increased at the northern limit (cod). Although the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain, available evidence suggests climate-related changes in recruitment success to be the key process, stemming from either higher production or survival in the pelagic egg or larval stage, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats.
Keywords: climate change, eco-physiology, ecosystem, fish, population dynamics
Received 15 August 2008; accepted 9 February 2009; advance access publication 2 April 2009.