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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on April 8, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(7):1480-1489; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp062
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© 2009 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

This article appears in the following ICES Journal of Marine Science issue: Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans [View the issue table of contents]

The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters

Heather Cannaby and Y. Sinan Hüsrevoglu

Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, County, Galway, Ireland

Correspondence to H. Cannaby: tel: +353 91 387502; fax: +353 91 387201; e-mail: heather.cannaby{at}marine.ie

Cannaby, H., and Hüsrevoglu, Y. S. 2009. The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1480–1489.

Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series collected in Irish waters between 1850 and 2007 exhibit a warming trend averaging 0.3°C. The strongest warming has occurred since 1994, with the warmest years in the record being 2005, 2006, and 2007. The warming trend is superimposed on significant interannual to multidecadal-scale variability, linked to basin-scale oscillations of the ocean–atmosphere system. The dominant modes of low-frequency variability in North Atlantic SST records, investigated using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, correspond to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, respectively, accounting for 23, 16, and 9% of the total variance in the dataset. Interannual variability in Irish SST records is dominated by the AMO, which, currently in its warm phase, explains approximately half of the current warm anomaly in the record. The EAP and the NAO influence variability in Irish SST time-series on a smaller scale, with the EAP also contributing to the current warm anomaly. After resolving the prevalent oscillatory modes of variability in the SST record, the underlying warming trend compares well with the global greenhouse effect warming trend. The anthropogenic contribution to the current warm anomaly in Irish SSTs was estimated at 0.41°C for 2006, and this is predicted to increase annually.

Keywords: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, global warming, Ireland, North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature

Received 15 August 2008; accepted 14 February 2009; advance access publication 8 April 2009.

Present address for Y. S. Hüsrevoglu: Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Erdemli, Icel, Turkey.


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