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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on March 3, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(4):763-771; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp033
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© 2009 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Comprehensive discard reconstruction and abundance estimation using flexible selectivity functions

G. Aarts and J. J. Poos

Wageningen IMARES, Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies, PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands

Correspondence to J. J. Poos: tel: +31 317 487 189; fax: +31 317 487326; e-mail: janjaap.poos{at}wur.nl.

Aarts, G., and Poos, J. J. 2009. Comprehensive discard reconstruction and abundance estimation using flexible selectivity functions. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 763–771.

The additional mortality caused by discarding may hamper the sustainable use of marine resources, especially if it is not accounted for in stock assessment and fisheries management. Generally, long and precise time-series on age-structured landings exist, but historical discard estimates are often lacking or imprecise. The flatfish fishery in the North Sea is a mixed fishery targeting mainly sole and plaice. Owing to the gear characteristics and a minimum landing size for these species, considerable discarding occurs, especially for juvenile plaice. Discard samples collected by on-board observers are available since 1999 from a limited number of commercial fishing trips. Here, we develop a statistical catch-at-age model with flexible selectivity functions to reconstruct historical discards and estimate stock abundance. We do not rely on simple predefined selectivity ogives, but use spline smoothers to capture the unknown non-linear selectivity and discard patterns, and allow these to vary in time. The model is fitted to the age-structured landings, discards, and survey data, the most appropriate model is selected, and estimates of uncertainty are obtained.

Keywords: discards, North Sea, plaice, population dynamics, splines, statistical models

Received 27 May 2008; accepted 26 January 2009; advance access publication 3 March 2009.


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