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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on February 12, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(3):532-545; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp017
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© 2009 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Estimating legal and illegal catches of Russian sockeye salmon from trade and market data

Shelley C. Clarke1, Murdoch K. McAllister2 and R. Craig Kirkpatrick3

1 Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Manor House, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK
2 Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4
3 TRAFFIC-East Asia, 20/F Double Building, 22 Stanley Street, Central, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China

Correspondence to S. C. Clarke: tel/fax: +81 547 540275; e-mail: shelley.clarke{at}imperial.ac.uk.

Clarke, S. C., McAllister, M. K., and Kirkpatrick, R. C. 2009. Estimating legal and illegal catches of Russian sockeye salmon from trade and market data. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 532–545.

To address concerns about the conservation of Russian sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the face of potentially large-scale illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities, we estimated the quantities of sockeye caught in eastern Russia based on trade data from Japan, China, and Korea. In addition to being a fishery-independent estimate, our approach avoids reliance on Russian customs documentation that may not capture quantities of fish transhipped at sea. Using a Bayesian statistical model, we estimate quantities imported and traded in municipal markets as two separate estimates of the actual Russian sockeye catch. To estimate the "excess" catch deriving from IUU fishing operations, these trade-based estimates of catch are compared with official Russian catch figures. The results support (posterior probabilities 0.72 to >0.99) the hypothesis that there are substantial quantities of excess catch of Russian sockeye making their way to East Asian markets. In the years 2003–2005, the median quantities of annual excess catch were estimated to range from 8000 to 15 000 t, representing a value of US$40–74 million and demonstrating that actual catches are 60–90% above reported levels.

Keywords: Bayesian, illegal fishing, Japan, Kamchatka, market, salmon, sockeye, trade

Received 2 June 2008; accepted 21 December 2008; advance access publication 12 February 2009.


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