ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on January 15, 2009
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2009 66(2):272-277; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn211
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Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring recruitment failure
1 National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-Aqua), Charlottenlund Slot, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
2 FRS Marine Laboratory, 375 Victoria Road, Aberdeen AB11 9DB, UK
3 Wageningen IMARES, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands
4 Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen 4817 His, Norway
5 Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Institute of Sea Fisheries, Palmaille 9, D-22767 Hamburg, Germany
6 Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS), The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
7 Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, Universitetet i Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway
8 National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-Aqua), Afd. Havøkologi og Akvakultur, Kavalergården 6, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
9 Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
10 Institute of Marine Research, PB 1870, Nordnes, 5817 Bergen, Norway
Correspondence to M. R. Payne: tel: +45 3396 3474; fax: +45 3396 3333; e-mail: mpa{at}aqua.dtu.dk
Payne, M. R., Hatfield, E. M. C., Dickey-Collas, M., Falkenhaug, T., Gallego, A., Gröger, J., Licandro, P., Llope, M., Munk, P., Röckmann, C., Schmidt, J. O., and Nash, R. D. M. 2009. Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring recruitment failure. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 272–277.Environmentally induced change appears to be impacting the recruitment of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Despite simultaneously having a large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production (recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. Fishing mortality is currently outside the agreed management plan, and forecasts show a high risk of the stock moving outside safe biological limits soon, potentially precipitating another collapse of the stock. However, bringing the realized fishing mortality back in line with the management plan would likely alleviate the problem. This illustrates again that recruitment is influenced by more than just spawning-stock biomass, and that changes in other factors can be of equal, or even greater, importance. In such dynamically changing environments, recent management success does not necessarily guarantee future sustainability.
Keywords: environmental change, North Sea herring, recruitment, regime shift, sustainability
Received 16 June 2008; accepted 26 November 2008; advance access publication 15 January 2009.
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