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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on May 16, 2008
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2008 65(5):795-804; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn083
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© 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Organism impact assessment: risk analysis for post-incursion management

Marnie L. Campbell

National Centre for Marine Conservation and Resource Sustainability, Australian Maritime College, Locked Bag 1370, Newnham, Tasmania 7250, Australia

tel: +61 3 6324 3813; fax: +61 3 6324 3840; e-mail: m.campbell{at}amc.edu.au

Campbell, M. L. 2008. Organism impact assessment: risk analysis for post-incursion management. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 795–804.

Risk analysis is a management tool that is becoming increasingly common in biosecurity because it aids decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A risk analysis model [referred to as an organism impact assessment (OIA)] is described, one that was developed in New Zealand to facilitate the management of incursions of introduced aquatic species in a post-border (after quarantine is breached) scenario. The New Zealand biosecurity risk-management framework assesses ecological, cultural, social, and economic values congruently, ensuring that a transparent and objective framework is established with clearly stated ecological and socio-political imperatives. Using expert heuristics and published and observed data, the present study assesses the likelihood that a target introduced species will have ecological, cultural, social, and economic impacts. The consequences (impact and/or change) of such events are then determined, to establish a relative risk ranking, using consequence matrices to aid assessment of the ecological, cultural, social, and economic value impacts of species unintentionally introduced to New Zealand. To illustrate the risk model, the OIA for the incursion of the fresh-water diatom Didymosphenia geminata is presented. The likelihood and consequences resulting in risk pertaining to the introduction of D. geminata varied across regions, but based on public perception at the initial incursion location, Southland, D. geminata was considered to be an extreme risk across all core values.

Keywords: biosecurity, Didymosphenia geminata, introduced species, New Zealand, risk assessment

Received 21 June 2007; accepted 7 April 2008; advance access publication 16 May 2008.


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