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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on April 16, 2008
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2008 65(5):788-794; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn054
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© 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Predicting the potential distribution of the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: informing a risk assessment

Thomas W. Therriault and Leif-Matthias Herborg

Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, BC, Canada V9T 6N7

Correspondence to T. W. Therriault: tel: +1 250 7567394; fax: +1 250 7567138; e-mail: thomas.therriault{at}dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Therriault, T. W., and Herborg, L-M. 2008. Predicting the potential distribution of the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: informing a risk assessment. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 788–794.

A crucial step in characterizing the potential risk posed by non-native species is determining whether a potential invader can establish in the introduced range and what its potential distribution could be. To this end, various environmental models ranging from simple to complex have been applied to predict the potential distribution of an invader, with varying levels of success. Recently, in marine waters, tunicates have received much attention, largely because of their negative impacts on shellfish aquaculture. One of these species is the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis, which recently has had a negative impact on aquaculture operations in Atlantic Canada and could pose a risk in Pacific Canada. To inform the risk assessment of this species, we evaluated two different types of environmental model. Simple models based on reported temperature or salinity tolerances were relatively uninformative, because almost all waters were deemed suitable. In contrast, a more complex genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) environmental niche model, based on documented Canadian occurrence points, provided informative projections of the potential distribution in Canadian waters. In addition to informing risk assessments, these predictions can be used to focus monitoring activities, particularly towards vectors that could transport C. intestinalis to these favourable environments.

Keywords: Ciona intestinalis, environmental niche model, genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction, invasive species, risk assessment, vase tunicate

Received 10 June 2007; accepted 25 February 2008; advance access publication 16 April 2008.


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