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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2008 65(3):399-413; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn047
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© 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

This article appears in the following ICES Journal of Marine Science issue: 4th International Zooplankton Production Symposium: Human and Climate Forcing of Zooplankton Populations [View the issue table of contents]

Modelling copepod development: current limitations and a new realistic approach

W. C. Gentleman1, A. B. Neuheimer and R. G. Campbell2

1 Department of Engineering Mathematics and Internetworking, Dalhousie University, 1340 Barrington Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3J 1Y9
2 Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA

Correspondence to W. C. Gentleman: tel: +1 902 4946086; fax: +1 902 4231801; e-mail: wendy.gentleman{at}dal.ca

Gentleman, W. C., Neuheimer, A. B., and Campbell, R. G. 2008. Modelling copepod development: current limitations and a new realistic approach. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 399–413.

To predict the influence of environmental variability on copepod dynamics and production, models must account for the effects of temperature and food on stage-dependent time-scales. Here, data for development-time means and variance of Calanus finmarchicus are used to quantify the limitations of existing models. Weight-based individual models are sensitive to uncertain parameters, such as moulting weights, assimilation efficiency, and environmental dependencies, making them highly difficult to calibrate. The accuracy of stage-based population models using ordinary differential equations depends on model structure, with some predicted generation times being incorrect by months. Even when large numbers of age classes are used to reduce modelled variability, it is not possible to make variability consistent with the data. Accuracy of mean times for stage-based population models using difference equations requires a small time-step, which results in large numbers of age classes and modelled variability that is underestimated by orders of magnitude, unless a probabilistic moult fraction is used. We present a new stage-based individual model that avoids the limitations of other models and successfully represents C. finmarchicus mean development timing and associated variability. This approach can be adapted easily for other species, as well as dynamic environmental conditions.

Keywords: copepods, development rates, food effects, IBMs, modelling, moulting, population dynamics, stage-based models, structured models, temperature effects

Received 7 July 2007; accepted 6 February 2008.


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