ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on November 21, 2007
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2008 65(1):25-43; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm162
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Data conflicts in fishery models: incorporating hydroacoustic data into the Prince William Sound Pacific herring assessment model
1 School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK 99801, USA
2 Department of Anatomy, Physiology, and Cell Biology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
3 Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Cordova, AK 99574, USA
Correspondence to P-J. F. Hulson: tel: +1 907 796 2053; fax: +1 907 796 2050; e-mail: p.hulson{at}uaf.edu
Hulson, P-J. F., Miller, S. E., Quinn, T. J. II, Marty, G. D., Moffitt, S. D., and Funk, F. 2008. Data conflicts in fishery models: incorporating hydroacoustic data into the Prince William Sound Pacific herring assessment model. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 25–43.Data conflicts present difficulties in running integrated assessment models as shown by the age-structured assessment (ASA) model for the Pacific herring population in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska. After the 1989 "Exxon Valdez" oil spill in PWS, the Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) ASA model indicated a significant decline in the population, starting in winter 1992. Back-calculated estimates from hydroacoustic abundance surveys that started in 1993 suggested that the ASA model overestimated herring biomass from 1990 to 1992 and that the population decline actually began in 1989. To expose data conflicts, we incorporated the hydroacoustic survey information with all available spawning population indices directly into the age-structured model. In this way, the substantial uncertainty about population parameters from 1989 to 1992 attributable to data conflicts was quantified. Consequently, the magnitude of declines for that period estimated from both linear and ASA models depend on the type of integrated datasets and weighting, particularly with indices of male spawners. Our view is that a major decline started in 1992 when disease affected a large population that was in weakened condition. Other views are consistent with the existing data too.
Keywords: age-structured assessment, hydroacoustic survey, Pacific herring, Prince William Sound
Received 23 February 2007; accepted 6 October 2007; advance access publication 21 November 2007.
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  R. E. Thorne and G. L. Thomas Herring and the "Exxon Valdez" oil spill: an investigation into historical data conflicts ICES J. Mar. Sci., January 1, 2008; 65(1): 44 - 50. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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