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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2007 64(7):1302-1312; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm116
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© 2007 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Estimating and decomposing total uncertainty for survey-based abundance estimates of Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Anders Løland1,, Magne Aldrin1, Egil Ona2, Vidar Hjellvik2 and Jens Christian Holst2

1 Norwegian Computing Center, Gaustadalléen 23, PO Box 114, Blindern, NO-0314 Oslo, Norway
2 Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870, Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen, Norway

Correspondence to A. Løland: tel: +47 22 85 25 00; fax: +47 22 69 76 60; e-mail: anders.loland{at}nr.no

Løland, A., Aldrin, M., Ona, E., Hjellvik, V., and Holst, J. C. 2007. Estimating and decomposing total uncertainty for survey-based abundance estimates of Norwegian spring-spawning herring. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: –.

A method is developed to quantify the uncertainty of abundance and age-specific abundance estimates of Norwegian spring-spawning herring, accounting for the combined effect of several error sources. We present an abundance estimate adjusted for vessel avoidance, acoustic shadowing, and depth-dependent target strength, and highlight the potentially dramatic combined effect of these adjustments. Uncertainty in this estimate is affected by the precision of the adjustment formulae as well as by the sampling errors in acoustic and trawl measurements. This total uncertainty is decomposed into contributions from each source. Here, the method is applied to data from surveys on the overwintering stock in the Vestfjord system and off Vesteraalen in northern Norway in November/December of the years 2001–2004.

Keywords: acoustic abundance estimation, total estimation uncertainty, uncertainty decomposition

Received 6 October 2006; accepted 5 July 2007.


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