ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on March 19, 2007
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2007 64(4):768-774; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm006
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From model-based prescriptive advice to indicator-based interactive advice
Département EMH, IFREMER, Rue de l'île d'Yeu, BP 21105, 44 311 Nantes cedex 3, France
Correspondence to V. M. Trenkel: tel: +33 240 374053; fax: +33 240 374075; e-mail: vtrenkel{at}ifremer.fr
Trenkel, V. M., Rochet, M-J., and Mesnil, B. 2007. From model-based prescriptive advice to indicator-based interactive advice. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 768–774.Traditional advice for fisheries management, especially in the ICES world, focuses on short-term stock projections relative to reference points. Primarily, two numbers, spawning-stock biomass and fishing mortality rate, are considered in the advice, although a range of biological processes are included in the stock assessment models. We propose an alternative form of final advice that would not rely on stock predictions and only two numbers, but on a suite of indicators that are combined to provide stock assessment and management advice. For a single stock, the approach consists of monitoring a set of indicators of population state and fishing pressure. Stock reference status at some time in the past is assessed, based on these indicators and/or other available information. Changes in indicator values after this reference time are then estimated, interpreted, and finally combined into a diagnostic that highlights possible causes of the changes observed. After considering management objectives, appropriate management actions can then be proposed. The proposed approach is illustrated for anglerfish stocks in the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay.
Keywords: fisheries management, indicators, scientific advice
Received 30 June 2006; accepted 9 January 2007; advance access publication 19 March 2007.