ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on February 9, 2007
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2007 64(4):671-678; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsl048
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Evaluating the science behind the management advice for North Sea cod
1 Cefas, Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK
2 ICES, H. C. Andersens Boulevard 44–46, DK–1553 Copenhagen V, Denmark
3 Wageningen IMARES, PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands
Correspondence to S. A. Reeves: tel: +44 1502 524510; fax: +44 1502 513865; e-mail: stuart.reeves{at}cefas.co.uk
Reeves, S. A. and Pastoors, M. A. 2007. Evaluating the science behind the management advice for North Sea cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 671–678.Since 1974, annual assessments have constituted the core of the scientific advice underpinning management of the North Sea cod stock. Here, we base our evaluation of the assessments' performance on the quality of the advice and on the wider issue of how science is used to produce management advice. At the same time, we consider catch-at-age analyses and catch forecasts in the context of the amount of person-time and expertise available at the relevant working group meetings. The results indicate that, generally, the catch forecasts have been positively biased and that the bias has been driven by three main factors: (i) substantial overestimates of terminal stock size since the late 1990s, (ii) overestimates of incoming recruitment, and (iii) overestimates of growth. Information for other North Sea stocks (haddock, plaice, and sole) suggests that bias is a problem generally, not one unique to cod. Our results include a discussion of ways to use science more effectively in supplying management advice.
Keywords: cod, North Sea, scientific advice, stock assessment
Received 30 June 2006; accepted 28 November 2006; advance access publication 9 February 2007.
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