ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on April 25, 2007
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2007 64(4):603-612; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm035
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Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission
1 School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Box 355020, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USA and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
1 International Whaling Commission, The Red House, 135 Station Road, Impington, Cambridge CB4 9NP, UK
Correspondence to A. E. Punt: tel: +1 206 2216319; fax: +1 206 6857471; e-mail: aepunt{at}u.washington.edu
Punt, A. E. and Donovan, G. P. 2007. Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 603–612.Traditionally, fisheries management advice has been based on stock assessments that considered merely the "best" set of assumptions while uncertainty arising only from observation and process error was quantified, if considered at all. Unfortunately, uncertainty attributable to lack of understanding of the true underlying system and to ineffective implementation may dominate the sources of error that must be accounted for if management is to be successful. The management procedure approach is advocated as the appropriate way to develop management advice for renewable resources. This approach, pioneered by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) Scientific Committee, takes politically agreed management objectives and incorporates all scientific aspects of management including data collection and analysis, development of robust harvest control laws or effort regulations, and monitoring. A primary feature is that uncertainty (including that arising from sources conventionally ignored) is taken into account explicitly through population simulations for a variety of scenarios. The nature of the management procedures developed for commercial and aboriginal subsistence whaling and the processes by which they have been developed is highlighted. We also identify lessons that have been learned from two decades of IWC experience and suggest how these can be applied to other fishery situations.
Keywords: baleen whales, error, management procedure, monitoring, stock assessment, uncertainty
Received 30 June 2006; accepted 2 February 2007; advance access publication 25 April 2007.
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