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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil Advance Access originally published online on February 15, 2007
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2007 64(3):496-502; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsm004
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© 2007 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Random-walk dynamics of exploited fish populations

Hiro-Sato Niwa

Behavioural Ecology Section, National Research Institute of Fisheries Engineering, 7620-7 Hasaki, Kamisu, Ibaraki 314-0408, Japan

tel: + 81 479 445953; fax: + 81 479 441875; e-mail: hiro.s.niwa{at}fra.affrc.go.jp

Niwa, H-S. 2007. Random-walk dynamics of exploited fish populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 496–502.

Fished populations have been heavily fished over a wide range of stock sizes, and the data for such stocks are potentially of great interest. Population variability in stock histories has focused attention on the predictability of conditions of sustainability when harvesting fish. Here, I examine empirically the time-series data on 27 commercial fish stocks in the North Atlantic. The variability in population growth rate (i.e. the annual changes in the logarithms of population abundance) is described by a Gaussian distribution. The signs (up or down) of successive changes in the population trajectory are independent, as if determined by the toss of a coin. The process of population variability therefore corresponds to a geometric random walk.

Keywords: Gaussian distribution, geometric random walk, non-stationary, population dynamics, time-series analysis

Received 28 July 2006; accepted 8 January 2007; advance access publication 15 February 2007.


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