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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2006 63(4):611-625; doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.01.003
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© 2006 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Economic impacts of changes in the population dynamics of fish on the fisheries of the Barents Sea

P. Michael Linka,b,* and Richard S.J. Tola,c,d

a Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hamburg Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
b International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling Hamburg, Germany
c Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands
d Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA, USA

*Correspondence to P. M. Link: Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. tel: +49 40 42838 7078; fax: +49 40 42838 7009. e-mail: link{at}dkrz.de.

A bioeconomic simulation model of the two interacting fish species cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) and their fisheries is presented and applied to assess the consequences of changes in the population dynamics of these important fish stocks in the Barents Sea. In each scenario, the population dynamics of the fish species are changed by reducing the reproduction-induced productivities and/or the carrying capacities. Stock sizes and landings of fish are calculated for each fishing period, and the net present values of profits from fishing are determined for time periods prior to and after the change in population dynamics. Results show that reduced growth rates or carrying capacities lead to lower stock levels and consequently to smaller catches. There is only a small short-term economic impact on the fisheries, but the long-term consequences are pronounced. In some cases, greater fishing activity in the first few years after the change in population dynamics causes harvests to remain stable despite diminishing stock sizes. This stabilizes the returns from fishing in the short term, but veils the apparent negative long-term impact on the fisheries resulting from adversely affected stock dynamics.

Keywords: Barents Sea, bioeconomic modelling, capelin, cod, population dynamics

Received 25 October 2004; accepted 9 January 2006.


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