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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2006 63(1):25-35; doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.07.006
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© 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Investigating the use of proxies for fecundity to improve management advice for western horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus

J.A.A. De Oliveiraa,*, B.A. Roela and M. Dickey-Collasb

a CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, England, UK
b Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen UR, Netherlands Institute for Fisheries Research PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands

*Correspondence to J. A. A. De Oliveira: tel: +44 1502 562244; fax: +44 1502 524511. e-mail: j.deoliveira{at}cefas.co.uk.

Observations of fecundity from the 2001 western horse mackerel spawning-stock biomass survey suggest that the species is an indeterminate spawner. Therefore, estimates of fecundity based on biological analyses and until recently used in the calibration of the stock assessment are now questioned. The stock is assessed by fitting a linked Separable and ADAPT VPA-based model to the catch-at-age data and to the egg production estimates. Currently, the assumption is that egg production and spawning-stock biomass are linked by a constant but unknown fecundity parameter, estimated within the model. In this study, the effects of introducing relationships linking biological indicators of fecundity, such as lipid content or feeding intensity during the spawning season, to actual fecundity are examined within a simulation framework. Simulations suggest that when the underlying relationships between fecundity and the proxy are poorly described, weak, or based on a relatively short time-series of data, the assumption of constant fecundity will result in better management advice than using the proxy.

Keywords: egg production, fecundity index, management advice, simulation testing, spawning-stock biomass

Received 7 July 2004; accepted 23 July 2005.


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