© 2004 by ICES/CIEM International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer
Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries
a CEFAS, Fisheries Laboratory Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 OHT, England, United Kingdom
b DARDNI, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Division Newforge Lane, Belfast BT9 5PX, Ireland, United Kingdom
c Queen's University of Belfast, School of Agriculture and Food Science Newforge Lane, Belfast BT9 5PX, Ireland, United Kingdom
d Institut national de la recherche agronomique, UMR ECOBIOP Station d'hydrobiologie, Quartier Ibarron, 64310 Saint Pée s/Nivelle, France
e Finnish Fame and Fisheries Research Institute Tutkijante 2, Oulu, FIN-90570, Finland
f Institute of Freshwater Fisheries Vagnhöfda, Reykjavik 112, Iceland
g Swedish Salmon Research Institute Forskarstigen, Älvkarleby S-81494, Sweden
h Norwegian Institute for Nature Research PO Box 736, Sentrum, Oslo N-0105, Norway
i FRS Field Station 16 River Street, Montrose, Angus DD10 8DL, Scotland, United Kingdom
j Marine Institute Abbotstown, Castleknock, Dublin 15, Ireland
k Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography 6 Knipovitch Street, 183767 Murmansk, Russia
*Correspondence to E. C. E. Potter: tel: +44 1502 524260; fax: +44 1502 513865. e-mail: e.c.e.potter{at}cefas.co.uk.
Most exploitation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is restricted to "homewater fisheries", which operate close to or within the rivers of origin of the stocks, but two "distant-water fisheries" are permitted to operate off the west coast of Greenland and in the Norwegian Sea, and take salmon from a large number of rivers over a wide geographical area. Providing robust quantitative catch advice for these mixed-stock fisheries depends upon the ability to forecast stock abundance for about 2000 salmon river-stocks around the North Atlantic, more than 1500 of which are in Europe. A "run-reconstruction" model is presented for estimating the historic pre-fishery abundance (PFA) of salmon for countries or regions around the Northeast Atlantic, based upon catch data and estimates of non-reporting rates and exploitation rates. These estimates are then used to develop predictive models of PFA on the basis of estimates of the egg deposition, derived from the run-reconstruction model and various environmental data. Although the selected environmental indices correlated with the PFA of both southern and northern European stock complexes, the main statistical significance in the forecast models was provided by temporal trends in the PFA. Clearly, such a model is only tenable in the short term, and will be poor at predicting a major change in stock status. Alternative approaches, based upon juvenile production indices and including Bayesian techniques, are therefore being considered.
Keywords: Atlantic salmon, mixed-stock fisheries, stock assessment, stock forecasts
Received 5 February 2004; accepted 12 August 2004.
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