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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2003 60(6):1265-1274; doi:10.1016/S1054-3139(03)00147-4
© 2003 by ICES/CIEM International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer
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Sustained exponential population growth of grey seals at Sable Island, Nova Scotia

W.D Bowen*, J McMillan and R Mohn

Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Marine Fish Division, Department of Fisheries and Oceans Dartmouth, NS B2Y 1A4, Canada

*Correspondence to W. D. Bowen: tel: +1 902 426 8908; fax: +1 902 426 1506. e-mail: bowend{at}mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca.

Grey seal pup production on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, has been monitored since the early 1960s. We estimated pup production on Sable Island in 1997 using aerial photography with a correction for detection of pups on the imagery and a statistical model to account for the proportion of pups not born at the time of the survey. A total of 20 863 pups were counted on the colour positives. When corrected for the proportion of pups seen on the imagery (0.96) and the proportion of pups born before the survey (east colony 0.94, west colony 0.66), estimated total pup production was 25 400 with approximate 95% confidence limits of 23 500 and 26 900. The 1997 estimate indicates that pup production in this population, now the largest grey seal colony in the world, has been increasing exponentially at an annual rate of 12.8% for four decades in the face of considerable environmental variability.

Keywords: grey seal, population, pup production, environmental, variablility

Received 19 September 2002; accepted 25 June 2003.


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