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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 2003 60(4):743-752; doi:10.1016/S1054-3139(03)00080-8
© 2003 by ICES/CIEM International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer
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Modelling stochastic fish stock dynamics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

P. Lewy* and A. Nielsen

Danish Institute for Fisheries Research, Charlottenlund Slot 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark

*Correspondence to P. Lewy. e-mail: pl{at}dfu.min.dk.

A new age-structured stock dynamics approach including stochastic survival and recruitment processes is developed and implemented. The model is able to analyse detailed sources of information used in standard age-based fish stock assessment such as catch-at-age and effort data from commercial fleets and research surveys. The stock numbers are treated as unobserved variables subject to process errors while the catches are observed variables subject to both sampling and process errors. Results obtained for North Sea plaice using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods indicate that the process error by far accounts for most of the variation compared to sampling error. Comparison with results from a simpler separable model indicates that the new model provides more precise estimates with fewer parameters.

Keywords: stochastic survival, stock dynamics, process error, sampling error, age-structured assessment, Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation, North Sea plaice

Received 13 August 2002; accepted 26 March 2003.


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