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ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 1998 55(4):581-586; doi:10.1006/jmsc.1998.0374
© 1998 by ICES/CIEM International Council for the Exploration of the Sea/Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer
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Multivariate trends in phytoplankton species groups in the southern North Sea

Mike Nicholson, Rob Fryer and David Maxwell

CEFAS Fisheries Laboratory Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT, England, UK
SOAEFD Marine Laboratory PO Box 101, Victoria Road, Torry, Aberdeen, AB11 9DB, Scotland, UK

Correspondence to M. Nicholson: tel. +44 (0)1502 562 244, fax. +44 (0)1502 513 865, e-mail. m.d.nicholson{at}cefas.co.uk

When assessing trends among a group of variables, there may be a joint underlying trend not evident from direct plots of the individual variables against time. To provide a simple summary of this underlying trend, linear projections of multiple time series are constructed to maximize the variance explained by a fitted smoother. A number of tests for assessing the significance of the fitted trend are given. The method is applied to densities of phytoplankton groups observed over a 13-month period and used to contrast the trends observed in two different areas within the southern North Sea.

Keywords: loess, multivariate trend, phytoplankton communities, smoother


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